Filenews 3 October 2020
The phrase has been said many times this year, but since the revelation that Donald Trump is positive for covid, it's more timely than ever.
On hearing of the U.S. president's contamination, stock markets around the world collapsed. And in a country divided over its leader's face, concern about an impending political crisis or even a period of ungovernance is greater than ever, just a month before the crucial presidential election.
Of course, in an America that is pretty much already mired in chaos, with the coronavirus having brought society and the economy to its knees, and the racial and economic differences among its citizens being more obvious than ever, the fact that Trump is fed up with Covid-19 is just the tip of the iceberg.
What is certain, however, is that the forthcoming elections will be affected by this. So far things have been relatively... steady: Trump continued his show while Biden maintained a solid lead. But now everything can change once the helicopter picked up the Republican president from the hospital to take him to the hospital.
First scenario: Trump will be "infected" and likely to be re-elected
The first is that the developments will be a disaster for Trump and the Republicans.
"Trump is already in the polls far behind his rival Joe Biden (...) The news of his infection by coronavirus can determine the result -at his expense (...) Until recently, Trump declared that in the covid crisis the worst has passed," notes German magazine Spiegel, according to Deutsche Welle.
After all, the Occupant of the White House has repeatedly questioned the science of the coronavirus, spread fake news and underestimated the disease, rarely wears a mask and has attacked state governors for the restrictive measures they have imposed.
Already, the US president's illness has also hit his campaign: the US presidency cancelled Trump's florida campaign rally last night.
Even if the powerful U.S. man comes out negative in 14 days, he will almost certainly not be able to participate in campaign rallies in three key states -- Wisconsin, Florida and Arizona -- nor in the next debate on October 15.
Second scenario: Trump strengthened if he recovers
The second scenario sees Trump emerge stronger. Like this: "Trump recovered from the coronavirus within a short period of time relatively without problems. He then emerges as the big winner in the rest of the election campaign. He will present his quick recovery as proof of his personal strength, he will appear invulnerable. Classic Trump."
If he recovers from the virus, Donald Trump will surely use it to his advantage: he will declare that he defeated the "Chinese virus" without the help of the science he constantly rejects, and that will boost his profile.
More generally, however, in times of crisis, American citizens tend to rally around the face of any of their leaders. Trump may be the target of criticism for his attitude to the virus, but there will surely be a wave of sympathy for the president.
Besides, the whole planet is currently focused on Donald Trump. And everyone knows there's no bad publicity.
Third scenario: Political crisis
The third and most ominous scenario sees a "political crisis".
As Spiegel reports: "There is no doubt that a permanent, serious Trump illness would plunge the US into crisis. Neither Republicans nor Democrats have a plan on how to deal with it politically (...) If Republicans because of Trump's illness try to postpone the November 3 election, Democrats could prevent it in the House of Representatives. That's probably what they'd do. It's hard to imagine Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi voting in favor of postponing now that victory for her party seems so close."
Finally, if Biden wins the election, Trump could use his illness to question their outcome. Moreover, he has already spoken openly about challenging the outcome of the elections, as he believes that the postal vote will alter the votes.
What does the U.S. Constitution provide if Trump can't perform his duties?
As two other presidents have done in the past, Donald Trump could temporarily cede the reins to his vice president, Mike Pence, as long as he is no longer able to properly exercise the powers and duties of his office.
Should Pence get sick, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who is part of the Democratic party, will also take office. All of this is provided for in the 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.
This amendment was adopted in 1967, following the assassination of President John F. Kennedy, and describes in four articles how power is transferred in the event of the resignation of the president, death, removal or temporary incapacity of the White House tenant.
Under Article 3 of this amendment, the American president will have to send the honorary president of the Senate, namely Republican Chuck Grassley and the speaker of the House of Representatives, Democrat Nancy Pelosi, a "written statement" stating that he is unable to perform the duties assigned to him. Until he informs them, again in writing, to the contrary, the Vice-President shall act as President.
This article has been used three times before: once by Ronald Reagan in 1985 and twice by George W. Bush, in 2002 and 2007. On all three of these times, the two presidents had undergone general anesthesia for a few hours.
In 1981, when Reagan was seriously wounded in his assassination attempt, a letter referring to the 25th Amendment was prepared, but it was never sent to Congress.
Under Article 4 of the amendment, which has never been used before, if the president is deemed incompetent or refuses to cede power, the Vice-President, together with a majority of cabinet members, informs congressional leaders in writing that the head of state is unable to exercise the powers and duties of his office. It is then up to Congress to make the decision, but it needs a two-thirds majority in both Houses for the president to step down and take over as vice president until the next presidential election.
Source: in.gr